My wife sent me an article where Home Depot declared they will not be raising prices due to tariffs.
I responded to her, with more colorful language than I’ll use here, that I don’t believe that claim to be true.
The same claims were shared and repeated via countless news channels, along with additional messaging about how some products might disappear in the interim.
Advertisement
If you read carefully, Home Depot specifically said they don’t plan on raising prices “going forward.”
A reader who described themselves as an “overworked HD hardware dude” wrote in about 2 weeks ago, saying that Home Depot’s merchandising team has already changed prices around their store.
There are also specific examples of price hikes online.
Today, as part of online-only tool deals of the day, Home Depot is advertising a Husky 270pc mechanics tool set for $129. They say that you’re saving 35% off the price it “was.”
The same Husky tool set was advertised at $99 for Black Friday holiday shopping season, as seen in their sales flyer and in stores throughout the late fall and early winter.
Here’s the Husky tool set inventory that was leftover at one of my Home Depot stores as of January 2025. They offered the same $99 promo price for 3-4 months, the same period as for the other holiday tool deals that didn’t sell out.
Advertisement
Hopefully the $129 price is just temporary “before the real sale” pricing, although Home Depot doesn’t typically do this. Or, it could be the new promo price in response to tariffs.
With Home Depot workers commenting a few weeks ago that they’ve been raising prices, and higher “deal” prices than we’ve come to expect over the years, it’s hard to take Home Depot’s claims at face value.
It could be accurate for them to say that they won’t be raising prices, or they don’t plan to raise prices going further, but we’re seeing commentary and specific examples that they’ve already done this.
Looking at the Q1 2025 conference call transcript (PDF):
we don’t see broad-based price increases for our customers at all going forward
Many news channels relayed the claims but seem to have missed two very specific phrases: “broad-based price increases” and “going forward.”
Home Depot also said:
we intend to generally maintain pricing across our portfolio
This is specifically vague and flexible. And again it doesn’t necessarily reflect changes already made. If Home Depot has already increased prices, then of course at this time they can say what they will about their intent and plans “going forward.”
Home Depot might have to reassess their promotional pricing. Whereas their $99 Husky tool set is now $129, Lowe’s is still offering a Craftsman promo mechanics tool set at $99, and Amazon matched that pricing to offer the same.
Home Depot launched their Memorial Day sales last week, and Father’s Day is still a few weeks ahead of us.
Perhaps Home Depot workers haven’t already adjusted prices in-store, and perhaps Home Depot’s Husky brand has other reasons for the $30 price-hike on one of their most popular mechanics tool set deals.
Dave
I have a recent example that would tend to support the post from the person who said they were an HD employee busy marking stuff up…
About a month ago I bought a 30-gallon water heater for $419, but it sat for a couple of weeks while I was finishing a bathroom remodel where it was to be installed. Opening the box I found a large dent and bent inlet and had to return it. Usually instead of an exchange, the return desk will issue a refund and then tell me to go buy the item again – except now the listed price was $479.
I had to go back to the desk and get them to treat my issue as an exchange rather than a return, and while I was waiting a guy at the next desk had a similar issue with a 100′ garden hose. I mentioned my problem to him right as the clerk was going to offer him the usual refund/re-buy, and he decided to run out to the garden section to check the shelf price. Sure enough, it was $15 higher than the refund he was being offered for the same hose. So I’d guess from this limited evidence that maybe price hikes aren’t “going forward,” they’re already here…
Derek
I noticed that as well. I think this kit was just $99 on sale for the special of the day or pro sale on Monday.
Wasn’t sure if it’s just the silly Home Depot pricing or a sign of times to come.
Don
Fortunately I have no immediate needs. I’ll just wait them out.
Jason Swansen
They will not be going back down. They didn’t after covid and they won’t after this.
Jared
That’s what I was thinking too. There’s nothing to wait for – prices typically only go one way. Your only hope is that your wage will also increase.
Don
There are always sales. If Amazon has sales the others have no choice but too follow. Amazon Prime Day, Black Friday. Always happens. Just have to be patient.
Stuart
Discounts on what they want to sell can impact the prices of what you want to buy.
“There are always sales” might be accurate and still be wrong.
Steve L
Tariffs increase costs, sooner or later a business will decide to raise prices to cover those increases.
This is not waiting out a bump because a freeze ruined a crop. This remains until the tariffs are removed (could happen anytime) or the business finds a cheaper source (could take years).
Jason Swansen
And even if it were a temporary thing, like covid and the associated shipping and factory shutdowns, why would a company ever reduce prices afterward? They didn’t after covid and won’t after this.
eddiesky
Nope. Why would they if people will pay it, right? Its like when gas prices were $5/gal or more in some states. Stations would lower or raise prices daily. But UPS and other delivery carriers implemented fuel surcharges. They were doing it for several years, even after the gas prices stabilized.
This is the Tariff Surcharge season and “eat cake, I mean tariffs” seems to be the illogical recommendation.
But do you think that its a sham, to fear monger buyers to “better get it now, as it will keep going up!” and spend money they’ll need through recession?
Never thought I’d buy more at Harbor Freight…over HD and Lowes…
Andrew
I noticed pretty much across the board Milwaukee batteries at Home Depot went up between $30-50 a couple weeks ago, and I assume that was in response to the tariffs, plus there are a bunch of stickers covering things on the Memorial Day sale at Home Depot.
PW
Ha! I too noticed this specific item – the “big Husky socket set” has long been an inflation bellwether.
It’s been extremely consistent at being offered at the ~$100 price point for “big sales”. Last time inflation made that untenable, they “cost engineered” the set again until it could hit that magic $99 price point.
I have never seen this $129 price point before, and immediately assumed it was due to tariffs. It’s suspiciously close to the effective broad and general tariff on Chinese goods currently projected to continue (about 30%).
I think this new price reflects HD’s tariff projections, as well as an inability to quickly re-engineer the set to remove cost to hit the psychological “under $100” price point.
S
Thanks Stuart.
I had also saw one of those articles, and thought it was odd. But I skipped over the specific language they used.
More interestingly, I focused in on the part where they said the majority of their clientele is higher end and has a household income over $100k a year.
I mentioned that during a break at work and 15 guys started laughing (median wage for my state was just released as $80k/yr).
Seems there’s no better way to spit in the face of working people than home depot claiming they don’t need them.
Stuart
Page 15:
If that’s individual income, I doubt it. Household income with 2 working spouses/parents? Maybe.
According to the Census Bureau, median household income was over $80K in 2023.
Keep in mind that investor calls and such are usually transparent but also intended to protect or grow the stock value. Even figures that are supposed to be hard facts sometimes can’t be taken at face value.
HomerBucket
You’re right, but average folks are third class citizens to HD. At a regular box store the local contractors who spend 6 or 7 figures annually are the ones driving the gross revenue. Smaller stores in more temperate areas are a little more equal as garden and cleaning products make up a much bigger percentage of revenue.
The top of the pile is the very large specialized contractors, construction companies, and home builders. HD has been aggressively growing it’s Fulfillment Distribution Center business model for years. The FDCs sell in “whole job” quantities at minimum, and those jobs are multiple houses, whole subdivisions, big commerical projects e.g. retail centers and small office buildings.
Yeah, abandoning the individual homeowner market would be incredibly stupid but HD can, and does, treat them as a necessary nuisance.
Stuart
That only suggests your store has terrible management; I’ve had wildly different experiences depending on the store.
Frank D
If the dollar stores raise prices, you betcha that other retailers will as well. They’re not going to “ eat “ the tariff costs. Maybe between the manufacturer, distributor / wholesaler and retail shop; they can absorb a few percentage points, but the idea that some other country will be pay … yeah right. Only if you drink a certain flavor of koolaid.
HomeBucket
The process started April 21st two weeks before the end of Q1. There is always a surge in price changes as quarterly plays wind down, seasonal shifts change priorities, and residual non-core stock goes through clearance cadence. That means it’s also the perfect time to make permanent price hikes. Price change tasking time jumped 200-250% in some smaller, older stores. So a location which normally does 12 hrs of pricing a week was doing 24+ hours which is hundreds of individual SKUs being impacted. These changes typically fell in the range of a 5-7% increase, but some Classes saw 30%+ increases (look at glove prices). All of those figures can vary depending on division, region, and store. The net effect is unchanged.
There is NO reason for the sheer volume and the percentages of increase except the immediate tariff impacts and the extremely negative long term outlook. HD certainly did not suddenly give everyone a big raise (they’re actually low and not competitive for non-managers), and is not going on a massive capital improvement blitz for real property.
Ryobi Days started FW16 (05/19), along with a new slate of Milwaukee offerings. The Ryobi offerings are largely unaffected. The Milwaukee section though got heavily reworked. Look at the headers and other signage that has pricing info. The original retails have been covered and new pricing put up. All of the months of planning, approvals, printing, and shipping to land product and signage in stores almost completely undone. Now MET and TTI reps have to deal with the complications of last minute audibles without any additional time to work on the set. Tedious and slow sign changes, unclear and contradicting instructions, and more pricing adjustments happening during the process.
Oh, and, last thing: Bulk Pricing has been overhauled with less savings and higher quantity thresholds. Nobody ever notices that.
Steven Phillips
Their prices have gone up alert 20-30% on everything in the last four or so years. Even if they stopped increasing their prices now, it’s a “gee, thanks” kind of thing. The damage is already done.
Adam
I talked to a MET team employee that several weeks back was updating all the pricing in the steel stock area, and there were no prices going out were lower.
With that, I was at a HD that is relatively small and not near other immediate big box hardware. The brass bushing was $5.57 at that store, and only $3.65 at the HD that had the normal assortment of competition. My first thought is the people out in the country are not the ones to get price gouged like that. I know most items aren’t that bad, but 55% is crazy.
S
It’s competition and convenience, plain and simple.
The comment by home bucket above gets into it a little as well.
But honestly it’s no different than Grainger. They’ve never been cost competitive, but stock everything locally that most other commercial channels don’t. I’ve even gotten specialty lighting ballasts from their on-hand inventory that all the local electrical contractor stores won’t stock.
It always comes down to time and effort. If that store is in a hardware wasteland, it means less competition. But it also means less overall product loads going out there, which the price needs to rise to justify the transport costs.
AP
Regarding the large Husky tool set that would typically promo for $99 in the stores, here’s some math that shows how the sets will probably be $129 now:
I’d estimate that HD pays a China factory roughly $48 for the set. ($48 FOB Shanghai.)
To find the estimated landed cost (importing to the USA) you need to add about 10% for shipping, 9% for duty, 25% for the tariffs placed on China several years ago, and now another 30% for the new current tariffs. That’s a total of 74% that needs to be added to the original FOB cost. So, $48 X 1.74 = $83.52. That means it costs HD $83.52 to get the set to the USA. If HD operates on a tight margin of 35 points, then their retail price will be $129.99.
Some variables could impact the final retail price a bit, including:
Maybe HD gets a better FOB price than $48 because of the large order quantities placed.
Maybe the cost of shipping is going to be more than 10% now for a while due to a backlog of stuff that many importers are going to try to ship to the USA now all at once.
Maybe the actual duty is only 3.9% instead of 9% because of particular contents included in the tool set.
Maybe there are additional trucking costs to be accounted for to ship these sets from HD distribution centers to the stores.
The bottom line is that $129 should now be considered an amazing retail price given all the different inputs.
But $99 would still have been achievable if the 25% and 30% tariffs weren’t placed on China products.
Now, if the consumer buys the tool set for $129, then they’re probably paying about $26.40 more just to cover the cost of the tariffs.